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    Forecast

    Forecast tables for 2017–2020 (December 2017)

    18.12.2017

    See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2017–2020 (December 2017).

    1

    December 2017

    1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT REFERENCE YEAR 2010 PRICES
    % change on previous year     
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    GDP at market prices 1.9 3.1 2.5 1.6 1.4
    Imports of goods and services 4.4 2.2 3.4 2.9 2.7
    Exports of goods and services                                  1.3 8.4 3.8 3.5 3.0
    Private consumption 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.2
    Public consumption 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.4
    Private fixed investment 7.9 11.2 5.8 3.2 2.5
    Public fixed investment 3.9 –1.1 3.3 –0.5 1.2
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    GDP, % change 1.9 3.1 2.5 1.6 1.4
    Net exports –1.2 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
    Domestic demand excl. inventory change 2.8 3.1 2.4 1.3 1.3
    of which Consumption 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.7
         Investment 1.5 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.6
    Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.4 –2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
    1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares   at current prices as weights.     
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS
    Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    GDP at market prices 113.4 114.9 116.9 118.5 120.8
      0.9 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.9
    Imports of goods and services 97.6 101.3 103.6 105.9 107.8
      –2.8 3.8 2.2 2.2 1.8
    Exports of goods and services                                  101.2 104.2 107.1 109.0 111.1
      –1.9 3.0 2.8 1.8 1.9
    Private consumption 111.5 112.4 113.8 115.5 117.3
      0.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5
    Public consumption 113.3 111.5 113.1 114.7 117.7
      0.0 –1.6 1.5 1.4 2.6
    Private fixed investment 111.1 113.4 115.8 117.9 120.4
      1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.2
    Public fixed investment 111.5 113.5 116.0 118.5 121.1
      1.1 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.1
    Terms of trade (goods and services) 103.7 102.9 103.4 103.0 103.0
      1.0 –0.8 0.5 –0.5 0.1
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
    EUR million and % change on previous year     
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    GDP at market prices 215,615 225,200 235,104 242,162 250,380
      2.9 4.4 4.4 3.0 3.4
    Imports of goods and services 78,616 83,412 88,165 92,788 97,059
      1.5 6.1 5.7 5.2 4.6
    Total supply 294,231 308,612 323,269 334,950 347,439
      2.5 4.9 4.7 3.6 3.7
    Exports of goods and services                                  75,967 84,847 90,473 95,293 99,995
      –0.6 11.7 6.6 5.3 4.9
    Consumption 170,771 173,468 178,307 182,671 187,819
      2.3 1.6 2.8 2.4 2.8
       Private 119,056 122,327 126,050 129,625 133,192
      2.8 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.8
       Public                                                      51,715 51,141 52,257 53,046 54,626
      1.2 –1.1 2.2 1.5 3.0
    Fixed investment                                                    46,423 51,577 55,519 58,007 60,633
      8.7 11.1 7.6 4.5 4.5
       Private 37,860 42,955 46,423 48,753 51,070
      9.5 13.5 8.1 5.0 4.8
       Public                                                      8,563 8,623 9,096 9,254 9,563
      5.1 0.7 5.5 1.7 3.3
    Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 1,070 –1,280 –1,031 –1,021 –1,008
    % of previous year's total demand 0.0 –0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
    Total demand 294,231 308,612 323,269 334,950 347,439
      2.5 4.9 4.7 3.6 3.7
    Total domestic demand 218,264 223,765 232,796 239,657 247,443
      3.6 2.5 4.0 2.9 3.2
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND  
    % of GDP at current prices     
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
    Imports of goods and services 36.5 37.0 37.5 38.3 38.8
    Exports of goods and services                                  35.2 37.7 38.5 39.4 39.9
    Consumption 79.2 77.0 75.8 75.4 75.0
    Private 55.2 54.3 53.6 53.5 53.2
    Public 24.0 22.7 22.2 21.9 21.8
    Fixed investment 21.5 22.9 23.6 24.0 24.2
    Private 17.6 19.1 19.7 20.1 20.4
    Public 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8
    Inventory change + statistical discrepancy, 0.5 –0.6 –0.4 –0.4 –0.4
    Total demand 136.5 137.0 137.5 138.3 138.8
    Total domestic demand 101.2 99.4 99.0 99.0 98.8
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    6. PRICES     
    Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year     
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005=100 100.4 101.2 102.3 103.8 105.3
      0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5
    Consumer price index, 2005=100 100.4 101.1 102.1 103.5 105.0
      0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5
    Private consumption deflator                                          111.5 112.4 113.8 115.5 117.3
      0.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5
    Private investment deflator 111.1 113.4 115.8 117.9 120.4
      1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.2
    Exports of goods and services deflator 101.2 104.2 107.1 109.0 111.1
      –1.9 3.0 2.8 1.8 1.9
    Imports of goods and services deflator 97.6 101.3 103.6 105.9 107.8
      –2.8 3.8 2.2 2.2 1.8
    Value-added deflators                                                 
    Value-added, gross at basic prices                                        113.3 113.8 115.5 117.1 119.0
      1.0 0.4 1.5 1.4 1.6
    Private sector 112.8 113.7 115.4 117.0 118.7
      1.3 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.4
    Public sector 115.3 113.9 115.6 117.2 120.3
      –0.3 –1.2 1.5 1.4 2.6
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY     
    % change on previous year     
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Whole economy     
       Index of wage and salary earnings 0.9 0.2 2.3 2.3 2.4
       Compensation per employee 1.0 –0.6 1.3 2.0 2.8
       Unit labour costs –0.5 –2.8 –0.4 1.0 1.7
       Labour productivity per employed person 1.5 2.3 1.8 1.1 1.1
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    8. LABOUR MARKET     
    1,000 persons and % change on previous year        
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)     
    Employed persons 2,447 2,466 2,485 2,498 2,507
      0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4
    Unemployed persons 236 232 220 214 206
      –6.4 –1.8 –4.8 –3.0 –3.5
    Labour force 2,683 2,698 2,705 2,712 2,713
      –0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0
    Working–age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,463 3,452 3,445 3,438 3,432
      –0.4 –0.3 –0.2 –0.2 –0.2
    Labour force participation rate, %                                                      65.3 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.6
    Unemployment rate, % 8.8 8.6 8.2 7.9 7.6
    Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 68.7 69.3 69.9 70.4 70.7
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
    % OF GDP     
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    General government revenue 54.0 52.3 50.9 50.7 50.8
    General government expenditure 55.8 53.4 52.3 51.7 51.5
    General government primary expenditure 54.7 52.5 51.5 50.9 50.7
    General government interest expenditure 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
    General government net lending –1.8 –1.1 –1.4 –1.0 –0.7
    Central government –2.7 –2.1 –2.0 –1.3 –0.8
    Local government –0.4 –0.2 –0.5 –0.6 –0.6
    Social security funds 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7
    General government primary balance –0.7 –0.2 –0.6 –0.2 0.1
    General government debt (EDP) 63.1 61.8 61.3 61.4 60.8
    Central government debt 47.5 46.9 46.9 46.8 46.1
    Tax ratio 44.1 42.9 41.7 41.6 41.7
    Current prices, EUR billion
    General government net lending –3.8 –2.6 –3.4 –2.5 –1.8
    Central government –5.8 –4.8 –4.8 –3.2 –2.1
    Local government –0.9 –0.5 –1.1 –1.4 –1.5
    Social security funds 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.8
    General government debt (EDP) 136.0 139.2 144.5 148.7 152.3
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS     
    EUR billion     
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Exports of goods and services (SNA) 76.0 84.8 90.5 95.3 100.0
    Imports of goods and services (SNA) 78.6 83.4 88.2 92.8 97.1
    Goods and services account (SNA) –2.6 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.9
    % of GDP –1.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.2
    Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.5
    Current transfers, net –2.5 –2.6 –2.8 –2.8 –3.0
    Current account, net –3.0 –0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4
    Net lending, % of GDP     
    Private sector 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.9
    Public sector –1.8 –1.1 –1.4 –1.0 –0.7
    Current account, % of GDP –1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    11. INTEREST RATES     
    %          
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    3–month Euribor1 –0.3 –0.3 –0.3 –0.1 0.1
    Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2
    Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7
    Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4
    Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1
    1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.     
    2 Finnish credit institutions’ loans to households and non–financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits and repurchase agreements).
    3 Finnish credit institutions’ deposits from households and non-financial corporations.   
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT     
    The Eurosystem staff projections     
      2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    GDP, % change on previous year     
    World 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5
    USA 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.9
    Euro area 1.8 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.7
    Japan 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.1
    Imports, % change on previous year     
    World 2.0 5.5 4.5 4.2 3.8
    USA 1.3 3.5 4.8 5.2 4.3
    Euro area 4.7 5.1 5.2 4.4 3.9
    Japan –2.3 2.6 3.0 3.7 2.0
    Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year     
    Import volume in Finnish export markets 120.9 127.1 132.4 137.7 142.7
      2.3 5.1 4.2 4.0 3.6
    Export prices of Finland's trading competitors (excl. oil), national currencies 105.9 110.5 113.5 116.0 118.6
      –2.1 4.3 2.8 2.2 2.2
    Export prices of Finland's trading partners (excl. oil), in euro 100.3 106.4 109.3 111.8 114.2
      –4.7 6.1 2.7 2.2 2.2
    Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 97.3 118.3 120.8 124.3 129.8
      –2.8 21.6 2.1 2.9 4.4
    Oil price, USD per barrel1 44.0 54.3 61.6 58.9 57.3
      –15.9 23.3 13.4 –4.3 –2.7
    Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator1 ,2 104.1 102.3 102.3 102.3 102.3
      2.7 –1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
    US dollar value of one euro1 1.11 1.13 1.17 1.17 1.17
      –0.2 1.9 4.1 0.0 0.0
    1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.     
    2 Narrow plus euro area, 1999Q1 = 100     
    Source: Bank of Finland.     
    13. Current and June 2017 forecast    
      2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
    GDP, % change 3.1 2.5 1.6 1.4
    June 2017 2.1 1.7 1.4  
    Inflation (HICP), % 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5
    June 2017 0.8 1.0 1.3  
    Current account, % of GDP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
    June 2017 –1.2 –0.9 –0.8  
    General government net lending, % of GDP –1.1 –1.4 –1.0 –0.7
    June 2017 –2.4 –2.2 –2.0  
    General government debt (EDP), % of GDP 61.8 61.3 61.4 60.8
    June 2017 65.1 66.1 66.8  
    Unemployment rate, % 8.6 8.2 7.9 7.6
    June 2017 8.6 8.2 8.1  
    Source: Bank of Finland.    

    Key words

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