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    Forecast

    Forecast tables 2025–2028 (June 2026)

    12.06.2026

    Despite the external challenges, the economy is forecast to grow at a gradually increasing rate. This year, growth will edge up to 0.7%, and in 2027 and 2028 it will rise to 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. The inflation rate will increase this year to 2.4%, due to higher energy prices, but it will then moderate to around 1.7% in 2027 and 2028.

    1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND AT REFERENCE YEAR 2015 PRICES
    % change on previous year 2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP at market prices 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4
    Imports of goods and services 1.7 3.7 1.8 3.0
    Exports of goods and services 3.4 1.7 2.4 3.1
    Private consumption -0.2 0.8 1.2 1.3
    Public consumption -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.5
    Private fixed investment 0.4 3.3 2.1 3.3
    Public fixed investment 2.4 17.9 -0.4 -2.5
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
      2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP, % change 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4
    Net exports 0.7 -0.8 0.3 0.1
    Domestic demand excl. inventory change -0.0 1.8 0.9 1.3
    of which Consumption -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
    Investment 0.2 1.4 0.4 0.5
    Inventory change + statistical discrepancy -0.5 -0.2 -0.0 0.1
    1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS
    Index 2015=100, and % change on previous year 2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP at market prices 122.7 124.8 127.3 129.7
      1.5 1.7 2.0 1.9
    Imports of goods and services 123.0 127.0 130.2 131.8
      -1.2 3.3 2.5 1.2
    Exports of goods and services 121.7 125.6 128.7 130.2
      -0.7 3.2 2.5 1.2
    Private consumption 120.6 123.5 125.6 128.0
      1.1 2.4 1.7 1.9
    Public consumption 121.6 125.5 129.2 132.2
      1.8 3.2 2.9 2.3
    Private fixed investment 127.2 128.7 131.7 133.6
      -0.0 1.2 2.3 1.4
    Public fixed investment 123.0 124.6 127.6 129.9
      -0.4 1.3 2.5 1.8
    Terms of trade (goods and services) 99.0 98.9 98.8 98.8
      0.5 -0.1 -0.0 -0.0
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES
    EUR million and % change on previous year 2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP at market prices 280,570 287,468 296,683 306,713
      1.7 2.5 3.2 3.4
    Imports of goods and services 115,228 123,417 128,757 134,211
      0.5 7.1 4.3 4.2
    Total supply 395,798 410,885 425,440 440,924
      1.3 3.8 3.5 3.6
    Exports of goods and services 118,756 124,627 130,800 136,544
      2.7 4.9 5.0 4.4
    Consumption 215,585 222,583 228,970 236,044
      1.1 3.2 2.9 3.1
    Private 142,447 147,049 151,375 156,231
      0.9 3.2 2.9 3.2
    Public 73,138 75,534 77,595 79,812
      1.5 3.3 2.7 2.9
    Fixed investment 61,260 65,897 68,477 70,880
      0.6 7.6 3.9 3.5
    Private 48,773 50,982 53,256 55,777
      0.3 4.5 4.5 4.7
    Public 12,487 14,915 15,220 15,103
      2.0 19.4 2.0 -0.8
    Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 197 -2,223 -2,807 -2,544
    % of previous year's total demand -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 0.1
    Total demand 395,798 410,885 425,440 440,924
      1.3 3.8 3.5 3.6
    Total domestic demand 277,042 286,257 294,640 304,380
      0.7 3.3 2.9 3.3
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    % in proportion to GDP at current prices 2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
    Imports of goods and services 41.1 42.9 43.4 43.8
    Exports of goods and services 42.3 43.4 44.1 44.5
    Consumption 76.8 77.4 77.2 77.0
    Private 50.8 51.2 51.0 50.9
    Public 26.1 26.3 26.2 26.0
    Fixed investment 21.8 22.9 23.1 23.1
    Private 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.2
    Public 4.5 5.2 5.1 4.9
    Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 0.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8
    Total demand 141.1 142.9 143.4 143.8
    Total domestic demand 98.7 99.6 99.3 99.2
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    6. PRICES
    Index 2015=100, and % change on previous year 2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2015=100 100.0 102.4 104.1 105.9
      1.8 2.4 1.6 1.8
    Harmonised index of consumer prices excl. energy and food, 2015=100 100.0 101.5 103.6 105.4
      2.4 1.5 2.1 1.7
    Consumer price index, 2015=100 100.0 101.9 103.8 105.6
      0.3 1.9 1.8 1.8
    Private consumption deflator 120.6 123.5 125.6 128.0
      1.1 2.4 1.7 1.9
    Private investment deflator 127.2 128.7 131.7 133.6
      -0.0 1.2 2.3 1.4
    Exports of goods and services deflator 121.7 125.6 128.7 130.2
      -0.7 3.2 2.5 1.2
    Imports of goods and services deflator 123.0 127.0 130.2 131.8
      -1.2 3.3 2.5 1.2
    Value-added deflators
    Value added, gross at basic prices 122.2 124.4 127.0 129.4
      1.2 1.8 2.0 1.9
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
    % change on previous year 2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    Whole economy
    Index of wage and salary earnings 3.1 3.5 3.3 2.6
    Compensation per employee 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.5
    Unit labour costs 1.8 2.4 2.5 1.8
    Productivity per employed person 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    8. LABOUR MARKET
    1,000 persons and % change on previous year 2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)
    Employed persons 2,589 2,585 2,600 2,619
      -0.6 -0.1 0.6 0.7
    Unemployed persons 279 301 287 260
      16.4 8.0 -4.7 -9.3
    Labour force 2,867 2,885 2,887 2,879
      0.9 0.6 0.1 -0.3
    Working-age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,493 3,510 3,528 3,545
      0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
    Labour force participation rate, % 68.8 69.0 68.8 68.3
    Unemployment rate, % 9.7 10.4 9.9 9.0
    Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % 76.0 75.5 75.6 75.7
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
      2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    % relative to GDP
    General government revenue 54.0 54.1 53.3 53.1
    General government expenditure 57.4 58.3 58.1 57.6
    General government primary expenditure 55.8 56.7 56.2 55.5
    General government interest expenditure 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1
    General government net lending -3.4 -4.2 -4.8 -4.5
    Central government -3.9 -4.9 -4.9 -5.2
    Local government -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7
    Social security funds 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.3
    General government primary balance -1.8 -2.6 -2.9 -2.4
    General government structural balance¹ -2.1 -3.1 -3.9 -4.1
    General government debt (EDP) 88.5 91.9 94.1 96.9
    Central government debt 66.9 70.5 72.9 75.8
    Tax ratio 42.5 42.5 42.0 41.8
    Current prices, EUR billion
    General government net lending -9.6 -12.2 -14.2 -13.9
    Central government -10.9 -14.2 -14.5 -15.8
    Local government -0.7 -1.1 -2.1 -2.2
    Social security funds 2.0 3.1 2.4 4.1
    General government debt (EDP) 248.4 264.1 279.3 297.2
    1Based on the cyclical adjustment method used by the European System of Central Banks.
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
    EUR billion 2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    Exports of goods and services (SNA)1 118.8 124.6 130.8 136.5
    Imports of goods and services (SNA)1 115.2 123.4 128.8 134.2
    Goods and services account (SNA)1 3.5 1.2 2.0 2.3
    % of GDP 1.3 0.4 0.7 0.8
    Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
    Current transfers, net -1.4 -2.1 -2.6 -3.0
    Current account, net 3.5 0.9 0.2 -0.0
    Net lending, % of GDP
    Private sector 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.5
    Public sector -3.4 -4.2 -4.8 -4.5
    Current account, % of GDP 1.3 0.3 0.1 -0.0
    1SNA = System of National Accounts
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.
    11. INTEREST RATES
    % 2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    3-month Euribor1 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.7
    Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.8
    1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
    f=forecast.
    Sources: European Central Bank and Bank of Finland.
    12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
    Eurosystem staff projections 2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP, % change on previous year
    World (excl. euro area) 3.6 3.0 3.2 3.3
    USA 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.9
    Euro area 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.5
    Japan 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.8
    Imports, % change on previous year
    World (excl. euro area) 5.5 4.2 3.6 3.5
    USA -1.2 5.6 4.0 2.6
    Euro area 3.9 1.3 2.4 3.0
    Japan -1.5 2.0 3.1 2.5
    Index, 2015=100, and % change on previous year
    Import volume in Finnish export markets 126.4 129.8 133.5 137.6
      4.1 2.7 2.8 3.1
    Export prices of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 130.2 134.5 137.6 139.9
      0.6 3.3 2.3 1.6
    Export prices of Finland's trading partners, in EUR 123.3 126.5 129.5 131.6
      -1.4 2.6 2.4 1.6
    Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in USD 161.2 166.0 167.4 164.2
      5.8 3.0 0.8 -1.9
    Oil price, USD/barrel1 69.1 96.9 82.2 77.1
      -14.9 40.1 -15.1 -6.2
    Finland's nominal effective exchange rate2 105.6 106.4 106.3 106.3
      -2.0 -0.7 0.1 0.0
    US dollar value of one euro3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
      4.4 3.5 -0.1 0.0
    1Technical assumption derived from market expectations.
    2Broad nominal effective exchange rate, January – March 2015 = 100. The index rises as the currency depreciates. Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
    3Assuming no changes in the exchange rate.
    f=forecast.
    Sources: European Central Bank and Bank of Finland.
    13. Current and December 2025 forecast
      2025 2026ᶠ 2027ᶠ 2028ᶠ
    GDP, % change 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4
    December 2025 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.5
    Inflation (HICP), % 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.8
    December 2025 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.9
    Employment rate (20–64-year-olds), % 76.0 75.5 75.6 75.7
    December 2025 76.1 76.2 76.5 76.6
    Unemployment rate, % 9.7 10.4 9.9 9.0
    December 2025 9.7 9.9 9.3 8.9
    Current account, % of GDP 1.3 0.3 0.1 -0.0
    December 2025 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
    General government net lending, % of GDP -3.4 -4.2 -1.9 -4.5
    December 2025 -3.7 -4.3 -4.1 -3.9
    General government debt (EDP), % of GDP 88.5 91.9 94.1 96.9
    December 2025 88.2 90.6 91.4 93.0
    f=forecast.
    Sources: Bank of Finland and Statistics Finland.

    Key words

    forecast GDP indicators indicators inflation

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